Happy New Year

Back from London where I spent Christmas and Boxing Day. It's been a hellish day starting from last night (Boxing Day) where my friend, Nicole, and I found out that the railway from London to the airport was closed and if we had take the diverted route, we wouldn't have made it onto our plane. We then spent GBP 120 for a taxi to take us to the airport....OUCH!!! Okay, the plane ride was fine but when we came back to Edinburgh, guess what!? The bus wasn't working and we had to spend another GBP 17 for taxi (See how cheaper Edinburgh is?). Anyway, all right. This afternoon, I went to the store to buy grocery since Natascha's coming and my cupboard is bare. After shopping, I had to post the postcard for Umar and his siblings. Again, lady luck struck...I got back home and found I lost my wallet - credit card, debit card, student cards plus cash! Yeah, not enough that I had to fork out so much money the night before, now I can't get cash out for my trip to Dundee.

I'm really hoping the next few days till New Year will be better. Wishing all a Happy New Year...will update with pictures of Christmas in London when I'm more in the mood for it.

Finally done with two assignments

Okay, I finally finished my Financial Risk Management assignment after working on it for so long - it was fun though as we were working on real data and were analyzing the current crisis in terms of risk management. We looked at a 5 day period in October when there were more than 5% gains and losses on the FTSE 100. Also tried to predict the VaR and Expected shortfall for some days in November. The assignment helped give me a better picture of how the theory works in practice.

Also, finished one of my special topics assignment. Left Energy Markets and studying for Financial Markets exams...I guess I must be getting old because I don't really feel the kind of panic I used to get when exams are near. Either that, or I'm just exhausted with all these assignments. Anyway, will be glad that it will all be over soon.

Balmy Night (for Edinburgh)

It's Friday, the weather is almost balmy (for Edinburgh) with a soft breeze and clear sky. I can see the quarter moon through my bedroom window. For a Friday night, it is quiet. Probably because the exams are around the corner and everyone is starting to feel the pressure.

I've just decided I needed a break from an intensive and exhausting week. I thank God for helping me cope and keeping me sane. Emerging with at least one assignment almost done, another assignment's direction is becoming clear and yet a third half completed, I think I deserve to take this Friday night easy before plunging back to work tomorrow. My friends must be wondering what has happened to me since I've not responded to emails for the past week and a half. I'm resolved to replying to them tonight.

Anyway, this entry is just to express myself a bit and let out some thoughts and feelings that have been mulling in my head. As stressed as I was this week with so much work piled up, I enjoyed the challenge and the bond it helped built with the girls (Amy, Alexia, Bahar, Nicole, and Yiota). I've always worked better with guys but I have to say that I enjoyed my time with the girls. Well, we were crazy enough to take an hour's break this past Tuesday night when it started snowing heavily to play in the snow. The break helped us relieve our stress a bit.

On another note, my father left for Hajj on Monday night/Tuesday morning. He, along with my godmother and some other family friends, will be moving on to Mina tomorrow. I pray that God keep them safe and healthy...that He give them strength to complete this Hajj. I'm not sure when I will be called but I do hope I will be called. I long to see His House again and be granted peace and tranquility of the heart.

Eid will be here in another few days. Another Eid away from my family - a friend asked if I wished to go back to Singapore last week. I denied it, which is true to a certain extent. I wouldn't have chosen to come here if I weren't sure I would be homesick. However, I do wish I could be with my family especially on special occasions. This is true particularly for this Eid when I know my father is away and my mom and brother are alone. I'm not sure if my sister and brother will go visit them on that day since for us, Eid-ul-Adha is usually low key unlike Eid-ul-Fitr where we usually get together late morning before going visiting.

Okay, that's it for now. Will write later after all the insanity has passed.

Pictures of first snowfall...

Okay, I'm frustrated with my assignment and need some distraction so I'm uploading the photos I took during last Sunday morning's snowfall.

The names say it all...

The first snowfall - From Him to us (2)

Tonight, I watch the snow flakes falling furiously as I write this. At 2 - 3 am in the morning, there is a sense of peace and quiet about the campus even as the snow blankets the ground white. There is a sense that God is close. Of course I couldn't just see the snow, I had to experience it myself - so I threw on some clothes, jacket and my Sony alpha before marching downstairs to see, touch, and snap some photograph...okay, the pictures didn't turn out all that well coz I don't have my tripod and I was too cold to hold the camera steady. But watching the side of the loch turning white and the green grass disappearing under the blanket of snow, I felt a tug - winter is here. A change is happening right before my eyes. Yet, most would have slept through it, not aware of this moment, not sensing the implications...and I wonder...

How many significant events have happened in my life and I "slept" through them? How many times have God reached for me and I carried on, unaware? Have I squandered the time given to me?

The first snowfall - From Him to us

I saw the random snowflakes in the rain this morning and it brought the memories of writing a story back in 2001 based on my experience regarding my first snowfall at Prof Patera's place...

"Snow's falling. Snow's falling? When did it happen? Just yesterday, it seemed like summer and now snow's falling?"She looked out of the glass wall of her little house at the soft flakes falling gently to the ground. The little pine tree on one side of the house was being covered ever so rapidly with snow. She could hear the snow hitting her roof.

Ah...I remember...subhanallah! Will I feel the same when I see the actual first snowfall here? Only God knows, but there is something magical, enchanting of that first gentle flakes falling onto your outstretched hands - they've recently been with the Creator...from Him to you.

Swimming...

Finally, I got to swim after a whole two months of going without. It's quite expensive and there are few places to swim, here. In fact at almost 3 pounds, it is the most expensive swimming session I've had. But it was worth it. :) Ventured out at about 11 am after my study session to Dalry Road and found the swimming centre that Melanie talked about.

The swimming pool is small - smaller than SP's pool and not quite Olympic length of 50 m. But the weird part is that the centre has an open shower concept - you can bet I didn't shower at the pool. :D Still, it was a satisfying hour of swimming (didn't want to over do the first session). The pool is near Sommerfield and Lidl so I can do my grocery shopping when I go for the next swimming session.

St Andrews visit (2nd Nov 2008)

So, these are the pictures for the St. Andrew's trip. Not as spectular scenery as the highland trip I took before but it had a charm of its own. Now, below is the fishing village of Pittenweem, the number one port along the East Nenk. Note the extremely low tide and the beautiful sky.


Due to the really low tide, some of us (the more adventurous souls) decided to go all the way out to the edge of the waters.

The rest of us stay close to shore...like Siham (my flatmate) and I. We explored the port instead.

Okay, maybe I was a bit brave - I did venture out onto the slippery rocks and got this shot of the village skyline.

Of course, we weren't all serious explorers; some of us tried to relive our childhood too...tentatively.

And what would a trip be without the charming animals - here's the obligatory "cat in the window." :)

Then we made our way to another fishing village, Anstruther, where we visited the Scottish Fisheries Museum. The museum is amazing!! It traced back the history of fishing in Scotland to long before Christ. They actually got this archeological find of an ancient boat and the fishing equipments. Cool! The museum also had a section where they restored old boats and we can actually see them working. Unfortunately, we weren't allowed to take pictures inside the museum. So, here's a replacement picture of the harbour with its oh so beautiful blue sky...one of the loveliest days I've experienced in Scotland.

Anstruther is not just known for the museum but also for its fish and chips shop - see the long queue? Well, this fish bar is the best in the whole of Britain for several years.

That's Hajar and her delicious fish and chips!

After lunch, we headed to St. Andrews. As I mentioned, this is the birthplace of golf, but it is also where the oldest university in Scotland (St. Andrews University) is based. St. Andrews University was established by the monks and priests of St. Andrews. St. Andrews was the centre of religious activity after the monarchy decided to move it from Iona and St. Andrews Cathedral was built. Anyway, today, the cathedral lay in ruins because of neglect.

Apart from these significant historical places, we have to have at least a token castle for the trip and below is that castle. This castle was used by the powerful bishops of St. Andrews till the time of the Protestant/Catholic fighting. Look at the ruins - the castle was really very vast and was built on the edge of the cliff.

I like this picture of the only other Singaporean I've actually met (there's one in my FRM course). Wilbur is a sweet guy...I think being the few Singaporeans around, we kind of bonded. He's actually doing acturial studies.

When I shot this, I thought that the people climbing about the ruins looked like toys in a lego set. Anyway, it was just a whim.

Hajar took this shot for Siham and me at the St. Andrews cathedral - see the tower. That's one end of the cathedral.

The picture below was taken from the other end of the cathedral. Note how far the tower is from me? That's how vast the cathedral was. Now, the grounds is used as a burial ground.

Okay, Hajar is a good photographer. I love this picture she took of me standing on the altar stone at the other end of the cathedral.

Now, for the oldest golf course in the world! Okay, it's not the fanciest nor the biggest, but this is the first golf course and it's where the golf rules are made.

And what's remarkable about the golf course is that it's right next to the beach, as seen below with Siham, Menal, and Flora.

Beach and sunset - good combination but the beach was on the wrong side (east instead of west). Still, I managed to find this slither of sunset behind me. I was using the timer and sunset function for this shot - turned out okay.

Had to take the skyline of St. Andrews below.

and the long stretch of beach.

Here's the quadrangle of St. Andrews University. I wish my university was this charming...hmm...seems like all the universities I've attended do not have this kind of old charm to them.

November's adventures

Well, today's adventure is going to be the last weekend adventure for a while until after my exam on 19th December. With two projects due, a challenge to be won, and exams to prepare, I will need to break my "sacred" 'no work on the weekend' rule (which I've instituted since my SMA days). I'm definitely breaking that rule this weekend as I will have to work on one of the projects tonight and another tomorrow.

But I thought I'd update what I've been up to for the past three weekends. On 2nd November, the Chaplaincy organized a trip to the fishing villages along the eastern coast, culminating at the birthplace of golf; St. Andrews. In one of the fishing village, I managed to taste the best fish and chips ever after visiting the museum of Scottish fishing. In St. Andrews, besides visiting the oldest golf course in the world, there is the beach - a long stretch of sandy beach (of course, it does not compare to the Maldives, Phuket etc...but not having seen a "real" beach for so many months, it's a treat.)

Then, my friend, Jenni, invited me to her place in Dundee last weekend. She and her husband John were so kind to host me and will be hosting me again for the Christmas-New Year vacation when Natascha is coming over. They live in this cute little place - not sure what to call it, but it is a house that is divided into four, each with a fourth of the grounds/garden. Since John's stroke, they built an extension to their part of the house and so, I had the upper bedroom all to myself. They also have this cute little dog, Gemma, who is even friendlier than Copper (San Diego Chris's dog who passed away last year.). While I was there, she would sit either on my lap or beside me (and keeping me warm).

Jenni and John took me to a place near Abernethy, the wee village of Aviemore if I'm not wrong, for lunch on Saturday where John used to flyfish. The river was definitely good for whitewater rafting! We then headed for the Spittal of Glenshee (where there is a skiing resort) - to find some snow for me. Unfortunately, the weather's too warm for it (ironically). But the view was breathtaking...(no, unfortunately we didn't stop to take photos.) I'm just sorry that John wasn't feeling well with all the twists and turns of the road.

By the time we got back at their house, I hurried to make dinner for them - made improvised chicken rice, after which we watched Merlin on TV. Wow! It's been over two months since I last watched TV. After John retired, Jenni and I watched two episodes of Lois and Clark from season 2. (LOL! I'm hoping that we can do a LnC marathon next time with Natascha and hopefully Chris {from Scotland} - a mini FoLCfest.) One lovely thing about Jenni is that I definitely felt no age gap between us - I guess the FoLC and fanfic writing gave us a point to start from but we found quite a number of other interest in common like history. Jenni is very knowledgable in British and Scottish history - hmm...another history buff, like me.

After chatting all the way till midnight, I found an interesting book in the bedroom called "The Time Traveler's Wife" by Audrey Niffeneger. Well, predictably, I spent three hours reading it - beautifully written and very engaging (though quite disorientating due to the jumps in time). On Sunday, it was a lazy Remembrance day where we spent the morning watching the previous' night's telecast of Remembrance day celebration in Royal Albert Hall. Wow! It was very moving and John and Jenni helped me to understand some of traditions. (John served in the Army military band when he was young.)

After lunch, Jenni and I went to visit a museum in Dundee - the historic ship that ventured to the Antartic twice, the second voyage a fatal one. It wasn't a big ship so it was quite surprising that it managed to survive the first voyage. Gemma went with us, getting quite giddy with being outdoors. Really, she is sooooooo cute. Anyway, I had a great time in Dundee, all thanks to Jenni and John.

And today, I went on another Haggis highland trip - this time, it's to Loch Lomond and the Campbell country. I'll load up the pictures from St. Andrew's trip and Loch Lomond trips soon. But here's some pictures of Gemma and Jenni.

Cheers,

Sid

LOOK AT THAT WAGGING TAIL!

An inspiring article on inter-religious activities

As I read this, I remembered the effort we, the MIT MSA, Jewish student groups, and some others, put in back in 2001/2002 to start something like this...hope that such efforts will last and bring good to the community.

Visiting a friend

Woke up this morning early so that I could visit Jenni and her husband. They've been gracious in extending their invitation to me. So, I'm going to try to replicate my success at cooking chicken rice for them. Will probably update the blog when I get back...:)

Zero percent interest rates?

With the Feds close to zero percent interest rates borrowing/lending between banks, it is actually doing so to jumpstart the economy by encouraging banks to lend to each other. With the ability to borrow without worrying about exhorbitant interest charges, this is close to what Islam encourages for lending/borrowing. Islam sees lending as an act of charity. In this particular case, this is charity amongst banks; between the better-off banks and their troubled counterparts. Cool.

Lost Worlds - Pagans (History Channel)

One thing I love (and miss) about cable network are the variety of channels; my clear favourites are Discovery and History Channels. You learn a lot from these two channels, especially if you are a techy or a history buff, of which I would like to think I am both.

So, months ago, I turned on the TV to the History Channel and lo and behold, it was showing "Lost Worlds - Pagans." The show basically took us to the ancient ruins around Britain, ruins that predates the Roman's conquest by several thousand years. I'm not even sure if these ruins might even predate some of the Celtic tribes like the Picts. It wasn't really stated in the show.

Anyway, cool theories about Stonehenge and Woodhenge, the very well preserved village at Orkney Island, and the connections between the various sites surrounding Sillbury (hope I'm spelling it correctly), really drew my attention. The village, for example, was built on a prehistoric landfill and the people at the time seemed to have some sort of recycling processes going on...and here I thought that recycling is a modern concept. Little do I know.

Of course, the technology that built Stonehenge and other henges boggles the mind. I am reminded of the Quran's insistance for us to travel through the Earth, for example, in Chapter 22, verse 46

"Do they not travel through the land, so that their hearts (and minds) may thus learn wisdom and their ears may thus learn to hear? Truly it is not their eyes that are blind, but their hearts which are in their breasts."

The Quran exhorts us to travel in at least ten different verses. Not for fun, work, or visiting love ones, but to learn wisdom by opening our eyes, ears, and ultimately our hearts. How is this related to the show? Today, we have the technology and the luxury of such learning without having to leave our homes as this show proves. What wisdom did I derive from this show? I cannot say that it is a wisdom that I currently fully appreciate but let me share and perhaps through the sharing better understand it.

Ancient civilizations, such as the Pagans of Britain, Egypt, Babylon, Rome, have long left their monuments and mark on the landscape of our world. Archeologists, historians, and others have researched and discovered new information about those eras. Yet, we never really ask the basic question: what happened to lead to their downfall and how does it pertain to us.

I'm sure the "technical" reasons for their downfall are well known or still being researched, but it is not the academic questioning that would lead to wisdom. Instead, it must be appreciated and manifested in our own lives. We really must learn from history and stop making the same mistakes. The Quran tells us so many stories of ancient civilizations now lost in time. This morning, one of my classmates asked why the Egyptians are no longer practising the old religion. It reminded me of Prophet Moses' (a.s.) exhortation to the Pharoah and his people and how Pharoah answered. How Pharoah ordered his priests to build the highest tower for him to "reach" God. Also of the other ancient communities mentioned in the Quran, especially in Chapter 11.

While it is given that these communities rejected the message that their prophets brought to them, it is not so much of that rejection that led to their destructions. It is in their deeds; the Ad whom God mentioned in the Quran as builders of lofty pillars, the Thamud who carved cities out of the mountains (probably where Petra is ??), the Madyan, and the Ancient Egyptians. Each of these people transgessed beyond measures. Take, for example, the Madyan in which Prophet Shu'ayb (a.s.) exhorted to "give just measure and weight nor withhold from the people the things that are their dues." (Chapter 11, verse 85). This reminds me of the current financial situation today.

Give just measure and weight - were the bankers fair in their dealings with those who are not credit-worthy, not to mention that interest itself is not just for it creates wealth without the necessary work/effort. The heavy interests charged to these people were themselves a burden, not to mention having to pay off the loans. Then, in restructuring the mortgages/debts, they sold each "parcel" off to unsuspecting investors. That is not giving just measure and weight.

The Thamud, when given the she-camel of God, hamstrung her. Look again at what we're doing to the Earth today and to the other creations of God. Similar to the Thamud, we are given the responsibility of sharing the resources with them. How much have we "hamstrung" our fellow creatures with our pollutions, our destruction of their habitats, our exploitation of resources beyond bounds?

Coming back to the ancient Celtic race, much of their traditions and knowledge were lost. Why? Because theirs was an oral tradition and from here, too, can we learn. That there is a need for documentation and a repository of knowledge. That is why Islam puts much emphasis on transmission of knowledge through the written word; the Quran stands before us as part of that emphasis as the written word (kalam) of Allah.

(Only God knows best.)

The Blessings of Allah

Friendship is a blessing from Allah and I am therefore so grateful to Him for gifting me with the friendship of Shariffa. What can I say about this remarkable lady that can do justice to her impact in my life?

Yesterday, she helped me clarified my thoughts and set about to be more proactive. And subhanllah, today, there was another opening to help me...a study circle. It was really God's subtle Hand as I, upon Shariffa's advice, asked a friend if she knew of any such circle yesterday. Remarkably, this afternoon, I was praying Zuhur at the mosque when a stranger approached me to let me know that there was such a circle on Tuesdays (just the right timing as it is my only "free" day).

Everything in its time

The Warren Buffett Way, part deux

The more I read the book and keep up with the current financial news, the more impressed I am with Warren Buffett. In the current banking turmoil, Wells Fargo has done better than expected as it is not as burdened by the subprime mortgage paper pitfall. Recently Coca-Cola registered a profitable third quarter as compared to its rival PepsiCo. Coke and WF are some of the companies Buffett has a stake in.


These two companies were also featured in the book. These two companies illustrates some of Warren Buffett's strategies which I really admire:


1. Know the companies very well; its assets and core business, its record of consistency, and favourable long term prospects - so do your research
2. Place importance on trustworthy, honest, rational, independent thinking, and exellent managers.
3. Value of the companies - whether buying at under the value or a fair price, you need to know the intrinsic value of the companies. This is where Williams' model come into practice.

And recently, he was quoted as saying, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful" and advising people to buy stocks now. The editorial in the Financial Times (dated 21/10/08) said that it is not so easy for investors to follow as they are not sure when is the lowest.

However, if you were to follow the book, Buffett does not just buy indiscriminately but buys undervalued companies at bargain prices. Even if the prices were to go lower, it will not matter as much as he believes that these undervalued companies will sooner or later realise their actual values. Also, since he invests mostly long term, the subsequent returns over the long term will not be much different.

Of course, the editorial comment had a point, which is why I especially liked Bloomberg's advice following Buffett's. He mentioned that for small investors, best to invest in mutual funds and do it over certain period of time. For example, say do it monthly over a period of six months. Your investment would most likely have an averaging effect.

My zany classmates II

The last few days have been filled with laughter as I watch the antics of my classmates. The Yiota says jokes are pretty hillarious though if I write them here, one may not think so as it really depended on the context. However, she can say such outrageous stuff with a straight face. Of course, she and Nicole feed off each other to make me crack up.

Of course, there's Nicholas who has a sarcastic wit (something about the Frenchmen perhaps). And yesterday, for the first time, I found out that Andreas has a wicked sense of humour as well.

Crazy Edinburgh Weather part deux

Just five minutes ago, the sky is blue and the wind was blowing. Then the clouds roll in and now it is raining very heavily. I've always thought that Singapore's weather was fickle; it is nothing compared to Edinburgh's weather. Imagine being caught by the weather when you're up in the hills and mountains. Hmm...okay, tomorrow if the weather continues, I'm going to book the court and "try" playing squash instead.

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It's now 1816 hours. Went to have lunch with the girls - cooked Chicken Rice, Bahar cooked a barley soup, Yiota came up with a Greek salad and dzatziki (not sure if I got the spelling right), Amy and Shuyuan brought desert while Nicole made her superb ginger tea. We were teasing Yiota that I should create a" Yiota says" column on my blog. She's great fun and a good sport. Definitely loved lunch and overate I think.

From the right: Shuyuan, Yiota, Nicole, Bahar, and Amy. Cheers, girls.

Holyrood Park & the royal mile

Last Sunday was overcast and cold but it was still too beautiful a day to spend indoors. (Unlike this week where it's raining.) So, since I went up to Salisbury Craig below in Holyrood Park the past weekend for a read, I thought I'd go and do a little climbing and photography.

Picture taken from in front of the Scottish Parliement of the Salisbury Craig. The view from the Craig is lovely.

Then, there's the famous Arthur's Seat. Here's the route going up to the highest part of Holyrood Park.

Like most of Scotland, Holyrood has its ruins, from the various time periods - this one was an abbey, I think.

The view of Arthur's seat from the ruinned abbey.

As you go further up the hills, you can definitely see the city skyline and the sea beyond as seen above and below.

I took my tripod along and so managed to take a picture of myself (Arthur's seat is behind me) on this trip.

And on the way back, I took a stroll along the Royal Mile (the road linking Holyrood Palace and Edinburgh Castle) because I wanted to buy a rug for my room. Below are some of the snapshots I took of the Royal Mile.

Indulging

Okay, those who know me well know that I rarely splurge on clothings. Other than my indulgence on books and IT stuff, I don't really spend much. But today, I did. I've already bought a good winter jacket plus my older stuff which are good enough. However, today (or yesterday) I was window shopping and found this velvetish jacket (suede, I think) costing 15 pounds. Okay, couldn't resist and I threw away 15 good (and crucial) pounds just for vanity sake. But I'm definitely satisfied because I tried it later in the night and it kept me really warm, even my hands.

My zany classmates

Just a small note. Absolutely adore my classmates - they are fun and completely zany. With the Greeks and Chinese being the majority and the rest are made up of Singaporean (me), Taiwanese, Barbadoan(??), Canadian/Camaroonian, Vietnamese, Thai, German, Nigerian, Mexicans, Irish, British, Polish and a few others, it's really an international class. I've not laughed so much as with this group, especially with Yiota around.

The Warren Buffett Way (second edition)

This book is one of the five "optional" books that we've to read (and testable) for Financial Markets. I've just read the first four chapters and I'm already impressed! His strategy makes sense. If I may summarise the first four chapters:

Buffett's investment strategy is shaped by four men: Graham, Fisher, Williams, and Munger. From them, he synthesized the following - a need for margin of safety, control of his emotions and therefore use market fluctuations to his advantage, have as complete understanding and knowledge of the company as possible, investing in companies with above average potential and capable management, a good model for the intrinsic value of the business, and paying a fair price for quality companies.

Based on these, his strategy puts forward the following criteria:
1. Simple, undertandable business
2. Consistent earning power and possess good economics
3. Little debt as possible
4. Trustworthy managers/management team

And of course, the fundamental idea behind his strategy is basically that he is the owner of the business whether he buys a business or buy stocks in the business. Long term commitments instead of short term holding.

As I was reading, I recalled how my father lost a lot of his savings when he was playing the stock markets in the 80s. Part of the fault lies in the little understanding of the companies and dangerous strategy to make money from any arbitrage opportunities. I'm also wondering how I could apply to my own investment strategy. Given that my investments are mostly in mutual funds, it's definitely not easy to know who the managers of these funds are and my knowledge is limited to the prospectus and annual reports given out. Well, I've got more chapters to go. So, perhaps the answer will come along the way.

The Credit Crunch

First, it was the subprime market that fell, then it was investment banks failing, now it has spread to many major banks all over the world...leading to (possibly) the Bankruptcy of a sovereign country - Iceland. Next, they say, will be the economic downturns and recessions. In a global economy where credit and debt are the underlying forces moving it, this is definitely a recipe for disaster as the banks are hoarding their capital and interbank loan rates skyrockets. In the cycle of credit and debt, the economy is basically fueled by consumer spending - the more you spend, the more you need to borrow and therefore the more "profit" is made from the credit. This unchecked spending/lending has led to the credit crunch where even large banks are defaulting on their own debts. From a book I'm reading, it highlight two very important deficiencies of the present system:


1. A debt-based system needs an effective lender of last resort and right now, it's been proven that we don't have one. The banks are looking to the Governments to bail them out but as Iceland proved, even sovereign countries may go bankrupt.


2. A debt-based system need debt restructuring and workout mechanism which as can be seen currently, even the US is grappling with this issue.


Right now, there is talk of needing a new model or better regulation. However, without changing the fundamental and here, I mean, the debt-based system itself, I seriously don't think the economy can sustain itself in the long run even if we get out of this crisis unscathed.


An economy that can sustain itself, I believe, has to be founded on justice and equitability. Justice in such that the gap between the poor and the rich do not widen but instead will close. What constitute a just economy? Well, based on what I've read:
1. equality in opportunities for all and in utilizing the natural resources (no hoarding of resources by a few or due to "national" interest)
2. just exchange and distribution of goods (was thinking of how in the zero-sum "game" economy I wrote in my blog earlier, this just/equitable exchange is unlikely to occur.)

Definitely, a debt-based system where the poor gets poorer as they get further into debt fail this test of being a just system. With the kind of economy founded on justice, there has to be a regulatory body (global) to ensure justice is served. Perhaps, our leaders are brave enough and will take this opportunity to change the current system...not that I'd hold my breath on it.

Time heals all wound...

I really believe that. I can testify to its truth from my own experiences. Taken four years, two jobs, avoidance of all things familiar, and finally a move back to school, but I think I'm finally over it. I can let JC go now and let my nephew play with him. Bye JC.

Model Risk - Illiquidity

Being Sunday and a brilliant day to boot, I decided to go to Holyrood Park. Climbed the first hill (well, midway) and because it was almost 1 pm, decided to have lunch and enjoy the sun there. With a view over the park, most of Edinburgh and the sea (well I think it is the sea), I finished lunch and started to enjoy my book on quantitative risk management. Amidst VaR and loss functions, the chapter I was reading discussed the importance of model risk in risk management. One of these is actually the ability (or inability) to capture the illiquidity of the situation. It gave the example of LTCM but I was thinking of the current situation of the bailout and the challenges the Fed face in pricing the bad assets when the market's liquidity is almost nil. The book gave a few references of works done to include this liquidity/illiquidity as a risk factor. Managed to get two of the papers and hopefully read them soon. Very interesting, indeed.

Loch Ness trip and other stuff

As I mentioned, the weather in Edinburgh is crazy. Yesterday was a beautiful, sunny day and yet, this morning, I woke up to the winds howling and hurling rain at my window. Just when I was supposed to meet Jenni. But at least the weather got us to have a good chat for almost 2 hours. She is just a lovely lady.
Okay, as I promised my brother, here's the pictures from my Highland trip to Dunkeld, Loch Ness, Culloden, etc. The right order (chronologically) should be from bottom up. So, you're actually seeing the pictures from the end of my tour first.

Just before we headed back, someone requested to meet Hamish, so here he is:

Hamish is really a "Hairy Coo" as my guide, Alan, calls them. Which means that he is actually a highland cattle. Note the sunny and clear blue sky.

Just before we saw Hamish, we stopped here (I forgot the Glen's name) which reminded me of the scene where Harry flew with Buckbeak over the Loch and Forbidden forrest. As you can see, crazy Scottish weather struck again and it was raining.

Now, this is a historic site - Glencoe...the site of the massacre of the MacDonald Clan by the Campbells during the Jacobite era. Look at how tiny the group was when compared to the mountains. Alan was telling them the gruesome story in the biting rain. It was literally freezing!

Similarly, I was struck by the majesty of the mountains when I saw how tiny our bus was. See that speck of yellow?

What can I say? Subhanallah!

Again, what can I say? In the freezing rain, I just had to take a picture of this wild flower. My favourite picture of the hundreds I've taken on this trip.

Now, before we went to Glencoe, we went to Glen Nevis at the foot of Ben Nevis (the tallest mountain in Scotland). Note that it wasn't raining here. Glen Nevis was the site where they shot the first three minutes of Braveheart and also the site of Hagrid's house. Cool, ain't it?

Hmm...we were supposed to stop at this town near Loch Ness to buy lunch but since I was fasting, I used the time to snap some photos. This was one of the pictures of the river running through the town down to Loch Ness.

Okay, the quality ain't that good here coz we couldn't stop and I actually took it from the moving bus. But this is the birthplace of Never Neverland and Peter Pan.

Mid morning of the second day. We visited this ruined castle at the bank of Loch Ness where Robert the Bruce once conquered.

We got to Loch Ness early morning and the sun was shining even though it was cold. Here's Melanie, my French flatmate who came on the trip with me. Did we spot Nessie? Well...see for yourself:

So, any guess?

Bright and early, Alan got us down to Loch Ness. The night before, we stayed in Inverness. Jenni told me this afternoon that Inver actually means, inlet. So Inverness is actually located at the mouth of the River Ness which comes from Loch Ness. Alan told us the Loch Ness is the largest body of fresh water in all of Britain and deeper than we can imagine (Trillions litre of water).

On the first day, the weather wasn't any better. Here, Melanie and I posed at the Cairne in Culloden where the last Jacobite uprising led to the historic battle there. Bonnie Prince Charlie fought against the English and was defeated. Thousands of Scots died that day.

The cairne is a traditional way for the Scots to remember and honor their dead.

Again, I really couldn't resist experimenting. Any comments?

Okay, the first thing came to mind when I saw this hut was Hagrid's! But no, this was a replica of the hut in which some of the Scottish men took cover in and were burnt alive by the English army.

A clear view of the battleground.

Before Culloden, we visited Ruthven Barracks, where the Scottish army stayed in before the battle. Here's what the view was like from the barracks. And below is the ruins of the barrack seen from the road.

This waterfall is the second stop of our trip. Beautiful place. Unfortunately, this is the place where I broke the camera hood. Ouch!

I played with the shutter speed and got this lovely effect. I was really pleased even though it may not have been worth the broken hood. Now, below is the beautiful River Tay in the town of Dunkeld, our very first stop. The weather was lovely and the scenery was just breathtaking.

The cathedral behind me (and seen below) is one of the oldest in Scotland. It was built in the sixth century when Christianity first arrived in Scotland. A good start to a very interesting trip.